Publicly available forecast of the risks of potential mass atrocities by the Early Warning Project

12 July 2015

The Early Warning Project, a publicly available platform to report the risks of potential mass atrocities, has released its recent forecast based on expert opinion pool. 

According to the update, we see (among others):

  • “Our pool continues to identify Iraq as the country most likely to see a new episode of mass killing this year…”
  • “Since our last opinion-pool overview in early April, Burundi has…since declined to 10 percent (from initially 16 percent), leaving Burundi eleventh on our pool’s risk list as of today. This trajectory implies that our pool continues to see mass killing as an unlikely outcome of Burundi’s tumultuous election season, though certainly not an impossible one.”

To read more, click here.

The Project is designed to combine the statistical risk assessment models (which often suffers from delayed availability of data) and a “wisdom of crowds” process through gathering expert opinions. This Project is a joint initiative of the Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum and the Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College.

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