Combining the “ensemble” data from the three statistical models along with the pool of expert opinions, the US Holocaust Memorial Museum-led project aims to provide a “public early warning system for mass atrocities.”

The ensemble of the statistical risk assessments put these 10 countries at the highest risk.

(Image: The Early Warning Project)

This ensembled data is combined and compared with experts’ forecasts. The project is designed to integrate structural risk factors which are identified through statistical analysis with regional and subject-matter experts on an ongoing basis. Given that statistical risk assessments are often subject to the availability and time-lag of data, this project tries to complement the existing models with the time-sensitive needs to be informed of constantly changing risks of mass atrocities.

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